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Probabilistic Analysis Overview

In a Probabilistic analysis, you can define statistical distributions for input parameters to account for uncertainty in their values. The analysis results is a Factor of Safety distribution from which a Probability of Failure is calculated.

The general procedure for carrying out a Probabilistic analysis with RocPlane is as follows.

  1. Select Analysis Type

    Set the Analysis Type to Probabilistic in the Project Settings dialog.

  2. Set Sampling Options

    Set Sampling options in the Project Settings dialog (Sampling Method, Number of Samples, and Random Numbers).

  3. Define Random Variables

    In order to carry out a Probabilistic analysis, you must define one or more input parameters as random variables, by assigning Statistical Distributions to the desired variables and entering the required statistical parameters (e.g., Mean Value, Standard Deviation). See Random Variables in a RocPlane Probabilistic Analysis for a summary of the random variables that can be defined in RocPlane.

    NOTE: Any input parameter that is NOT assigned a Statistical Distribution is assumed to be exactly known (by the Mean Value) and is not involved in the statistical sampling process.

  4. Compute

    The Probabilistic analysis is computed when you select OK (or Apply) in the Input Data dialog. You can also select Compute on the toolbar or the Analysis menu.

  5. View Analysis Results

    After the analysis is computed, Wedge Information Panel in the Sidebar displays a summary of results and probabilistic input and output data can be plotted on Histogram plots and Scatter plots. Data can also be exported for further analysis and processing.

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